The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been within the crosshairs of the USA and the European Union for its continued hyperlinks to Russia, irritating the West’s efforts to squeeze Moscow economically in response to its conflict on Ukraine. However now, some doable changes in Abu Dhabi’s overseas coverage might barely change the image amid rising considerations that Israel’s conflict on Gaza might unfold throughout the area.
In early September, representatives from the UK, EU and US visited the UAE to voice their considerations concerning the Gulf nation’s hyperlinks to Russia.
Particularly, these Western governments have tried to stop the Russians from accessing sure dual-use merchandise akin to pc chips and digital elements that can be utilized to strengthen the Russian conflict machine.
Earlier this 12 months, Washington warned the UAE, Oman, and Turkey towards evading sanctions and export controls imposed on Moscow final 12 months. Then in April, the US imposed sanctions on two UAE-based entities: Aeromotus Unmanned Aerial Automobiles Buying and selling LLC and Hulm Al Sahra Electrical Gadgets Buying and selling.
In accordance with the Treasury Division, Aeromotus had despatched a number of drones and robotics expertise to Russian importers following the outbreak of the continuing conflict in Ukraine.
Washington sanctioned Hulm Al Sahra for allegedly sending roughly $190,000 value of semiconductors, which have been from the US and topic to US export controls, in addition to equipment, electronics and optics to Russian corporations within the second half of 2022.
Shortly after the Western officers’ September go to to the UAE, Bloomberg Information reported that Emirati authorities have been contemplating introducing export licenses on sure applied sciences, together with semiconductors.
Abu Dhabi has but to impose these measures. Any such transfer, ought to it occur, can be not solely due to mounting pressures from the West, but additionally due to rising threats of the Israel-Hamas conflict spilling into different elements of the Center East. In that situation, the UAE would need to shore up ties with its final safety guarantor, the US, in response to consultants.
“If the UAE does introduce export licenses, it might be an indicator that it sees the prices of not complying with Western calls for as exceeding the advantages of not less than a few of its commerce with Russia,” mentioned Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason College’s Schar Faculty of Coverage and Authorities, in an interview with Al Jazeera.
“It could even be an indicator that the UAE doesn’t need to harm its relations with the US, particularly when the opportunity of a wider Center Japanese battle together with Iran is brewing and the UAE would need to have American safety towards Tehran,” he mentioned.
With the COP28 set to kick off later this month, the UAE desires as a lot calm as doable within the neighbourhood.
‘Beneath stress from the West’
Even when the UAE introduces any export management licenses, it isn’t clear how a lot of an issue this might create in Emirati-Russian relations.
“Moscow is more likely to perceive that the UAE could be making this transfer underneath stress from the West. Additional, this transfer may solely scale back, not remove, UAE-Russia cooperation. Moscow would need to protect what cooperation it will probably with the UAE,” Katz mentioned.
Maybe such export licenses might assist advance Abu Dhabi’s pursuits – each when it comes to its repute as a commerce hub within the Center East and its nationwide safety considerations relating to the Russia-Iran entente.
“Introducing the export licenses would assist reinforce the concept that the UAE is a dependable place to do enterprise,” Gordon Grey, a former US ambassador to Tunisia, advised Al Jazeera.
“The UAE has sturdy political and financial incentives to take care of good relations with the USA and the European Union. Additionally it is undoubtedly suspicious of the burgeoning army alliance between Russia and Iran, and would need to defend its nationwide safety by stopping dual-use items from ending up in Iranian palms.”
Officers within the UAE have considerations about Moscow’s deepening partnership with Tehran – partly due to the non-state actors that Tehran sponsors and partly due to its drone and ballistic missile actions – and are involved about their potential to exacerbate the Center East’s safety crises.
But, taking cues from the West in relation to relations with Russia wouldn’t be with out sure dangers for the UAE.
Russia has reportedly been sourcing drones and different weapons programs for its conflict in Ukraine from Iran. From Abu Dhabi’s standpoint, this dependence, mixed with decrease ranges of cooperation with the UAE, may lead to Russia tilting extra in the direction of Tehran in relation to contentious points in Emirati-Iranian relations, which might be problematic for the Emiratis.
“Moscow won’t be above holding this out as a chance to discourage the UAE from additional complying with Western sanctions towards Russia,” he mentioned.
Nevertheless, some consultants query if Abu Dhabi would really introduce such export licenses to curry favour with Washington and different Western capitals.
“The UAE and different Gulf states haven’t been too smitten by harming their relations with Russia,” Imad Harb, the director of Analysis and Evaluation at Arab Middle Washington, DC, advised Al Jazeera.
“If certainly the UAE imposes these controls, the choice could be for geopolitical causes, particularly to look that it abides by US and EU needs. However even when it imposes controls, there are methods of going round them by corporations and people who’re most involved about their enterprise and industrial pursuits.”
In accordance with Harb, the introduction of those export licenses in all probability gained’t have an excessive amount of of a destructive impact on Abu Dhabi’s relationship with Moscow as he pointed to the 2 nations means to work round such controls.
“The UAE can all the time organize to promote the expertise via Iran which has good relations with Russia and can in all probability be keen to assist Moscow circumvent any sanctions,” he advised Al Jazeera.