During the last 5 months, Israel has killed 1000’s of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it surely nonetheless faces a dilemma that was clear from the beginning of the struggle and can finally decide its consequence: It may both attempt to annihilate Hamas, which might imply virtually sure dying for the estimated 100 hostages nonetheless held in Gaza, or it will possibly lower a deal that will enable the militants to assert a historic victory.
Both consequence can be excruciating for Israelis. Both would doubtless seal an ignominious finish for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s lengthy political profession. And both is perhaps seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, not less than in public, denies there’s any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and get better all of the hostages, both via rescue missions or cease-fire agreements, saying victory might come “in a matter of weeks.”
So long as the struggle rages, he can keep away from early elections that polls strongly recommend would take away him from energy. But it surely appears inevitable that in some unspecified time in the future a selection must be made between the hostages and army victory.
Hamas, in the meantime, appears to be in no hurry to succeed in a short lived cease-fire forward of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins subsequent week, or to delay an anticipated Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern metropolis the place half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas chief Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 assault towards Israel, has cause to consider that so long as he holds the hostages, he can ultimately finish the struggle on his phrases.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly discovered fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he recognized a chink within the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He discovered that Israel can not tolerate its folks, particularly troopers, being held captive, and can go to extraordinary lengths to carry them house. Sinwar himself was amongst over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners launched in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might need been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to pull giant numbers of hostages into an unlimited labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, the place Israel can be unable to rescue them, and the place they might function human shields for Hamas leaders.
As soon as that was completed, he had a robust bargaining chip that could possibly be traded for big numbers of Palestinian prisoners, together with high leaders serving life sentences, and an finish to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No quantity of two,000-pound bombs might overcome the technique’s brutal logic.
Israeli officers say the tunnels stretch for lots of of kilometers (miles) and a few are a number of tales underground, guarded by blast doorways and booby traps. Even when Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would imply virtually sure dying for the hostages that doubtless encompass them.
“The aims are fairly contradictory,” stated Amos Harel, a longtime army correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “After all, you may say it can take a yr to defeat Hamas, and we’re shifting forward on that, however the issue is that no one can make sure that the hostages will stay alive.”
He added that even when Israel someway kills Sinwar and different high leaders, others would transfer up the ranks and substitute them, as has occurred prior to now.
“Israel may have a extremely arduous time profitable this,” Harel stated.
Israel has efficiently rescued three hostages for the reason that begin of the struggle, all of whom had been aboveground, and Hamas says a number of others had been killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. Greater than 100 hostages had been launched in a cease-fire deal in trade for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says army strain will ultimately carry in regards to the launch of the roughly 100 hostages, and the stays of 30 others, nonetheless held by Hamas.
However in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former high basic and a member of Netanyahu’s Conflict Cupboard, stated anybody suggesting the remaining hostages could possibly be freed with no cease-fire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s arduous to think about Hamas releasing its most precious human shields for a short lived cease-fire, solely to see Israel resume its try and annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the thought of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it is higher to remain underground with the hostages and see if his wager pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s authorities is underneath mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who concern time is operating out, and the broader public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most essential ally, is vulnerable to shedding re-election in November, partially due to Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian disaster in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The struggle threatens to ignite other fronts throughout the Center East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the desk through which the hostages come again alive.
It requires the phased launch of the entire captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term cease-fire and reconstruction. Israel would additionally launch lots of of prisoners, together with top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would virtually actually stay in charge of Gaza and may even hold victory parades. With time, it might recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It might be an especially expensive victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have completely different opinions on whether or not it was all value it.
A rare wartime poll last year discovered rising help for Hamas, with over 40% of Palestinians within the occupied West Financial institution and Gaza backing the group.
That help would solely develop if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, stated Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst on the Disaster Group, a world suppose tank.
“If this is ready to carry some severe concessions that may make life simply marginally higher, then I feel not solely will this bolster help for Hamas, however it might additionally bolster help for armed resistance extra broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” however there is no such thing as a signal the militant group is backing away from its core calls for.
Israel can preserve preventing – for weeks, months or years. The military can kill extra fighters and demolish extra tunnels, whereas fastidiously avoiding areas the place it thinks the hostages are held.
However in some unspecified time in the future, Netanyahu or his successor will doubtless need to make one of the crucial agonizing choices within the nation’s historical past, or it will likely be made for them.
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Related Press author Julia Frankel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
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Comply with AP’s struggle protection at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war