Maria and her husband, Aleksandr, are sure that President Vladimir V. Putin will safe a fifth time period as Russia’s chief within the presidential election this weekend.
However the couple, who stay in Moscow with their three youngsters, should not so positive about what is going to comply with. Foremost of their minds are fears that Mr. Putin, emboldened by successful a brand new six-year time period, may declare one other mobilization for troopers to combat in Ukraine. Aleksandr, 38, who left Russia shortly after Mr. Putin introduced the primary mobilization in September 2022 however just lately returned, is even contemplating leaving the nation once more, his spouse mentioned.
“I solely hear about mobilization — that there’s a deliberate offensive for the summer time and that troops want rotation,” Maria, 34, mentioned in a WhatsApp change. She declined to permit the couple’s household title for use, fearing repercussions from the federal government.
Many Russians have been worrying a few multitude of points earlier than the vote, which began on Friday and takes place over three days. Although the Russian authorities have denied that one other mobilization for the warfare is deliberate, a way of unease persists.
The considerations seem like grounded within the risk that Mr. Putin will use his unfettered energy to make modifications he prevented earlier than the vote. Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Heart, one of many few unbiased pollsters in Russia, mentioned these anxieties have been nonetheless felt primarily by the minority of Russians who oppose the federal government.
Whereas a possible mobilization stays the most important reason behind concern, there’s unease, too, over funds and the economic system. Some Russians fear that the ruble, which has been propped up by the federal government after plunging last year, could be allowed to depreciate once more, elevating the price of imports. Businesspeople fear about greater taxes, and opposition activists count on extra crackdowns on dissent.
“Individuals are very anxious,” mentioned Nina L. Khrushcheva, a professor of worldwide affairs on the New Faculty in New York Metropolis who commonly visits Russia. “Uncertainty is the worst, as a lot as Russian persons are used to uncertainty.”
The troubles replicate a present temper in Russia, the place many have discovered to hope for the very best however count on the worst. The uncertainty has been worsened by a authorities that consultants say has change into more and more authoritarian.
After greater than 20 years in energy, Mr. Putin is just not restrained by an opposition get together in Parliament or a robust civil society. He’s due to this fact comparatively free to behave as he pleases.
Some consultants say that the Kremlin might use the outcomes of the vote — anticipated to be a landslide victory for Mr. Putin — to crack down even additional on dissent and escalate the warfare in Ukraine, which was supposed to be a brisk “particular navy operation” however has was a slog that has brought about a whole bunch of 1000’s of casualties.
“In an authoritarian election, the outcomes are predictable however the penalties should not,” Yekaterina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist, mentioned in a response to written questions from The New York Occasions. “If the system decides that it did effectively and all the pieces is sweet, then the post-election interval could be the time to make unpopular choices.”
Ms. Schulmann pointed for example to Mr. Putin’s final re-election, in 2018, which was adopted by a extremely unpopular improve in Russia’s retirement age.
Elections in Russia are managed tightly by the Kremlin via its virtually complete management of the media and state enterprises, whose staff are sometimes pressured to vote. The electoral machine filters out undesirable candidates, and opposition activists have both been compelled to flee or have ended up in Russian prisons. The nation’s most outstanding dissident, Aleksei A. Navalny, died last month in a penal colony within the Arctic the place he had been imprisoned.
Whereas the result of the vote is just not in query, Russians have nonetheless been preoccupied by the method. The vote would be the first since Mr. Putin’s resolution to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
A Moscow guide who works with Russian companies mentioned a few of his shoppers had intentionally scheduled new inventory choices on the Moscow change in order that they’d occur in what they anticipated to be a comparatively quiet interval earlier than the vote. He requested anonymity to keep away from jeopardizing his relationship together with his shoppers.
Russian shoppers additionally rushed to purchase vehicles at the start of the 12 months, after auto-market analysts suggested that the interval earlier than the elections could be the very best time to purchase as a result of the ruble could be devalued as soon as the vote was over. The variety of new vehicles offered in Russia in January and February jumped greater than 80 % in contrast with the identical interval final 12 months, according to Avtostat, a information web site in regards to the Russian auto business.
Companies have been apprehensive that the federal government will elevate taxes after the vote. On Wednesday, Mr. Putin mentioned that the federal government would draft new tax guidelines for people and personal entities, and consultants mentioned that almost definitely meant taxes would rise for each teams.
Yevgeny Nadorshin, the chief economist on the PF Capital consulting firm in Moscow, mentioned firms have been significantly involved a few rise in taxes and better labor prices. “That might jeopardize Russia’s competitiveness,” he mentioned.
Mr. Nadorshin additionally famous the widespread rumors of one other troop mobilization that, if it occurred, might additional limit the labor marketplace for companies, he mentioned.
Mr. Volkov, of the Levada Heart, mentioned that almost all Russians, after the preliminary shock of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that adopted seven months later, tailored to the brand new world. A lot of that was the results of authorities efforts to boost morale by ensuring the nation’s economic system stayed wholesome and injecting cash into its industrial sector.
“There was a critical redistribution of sources in favor of the bulk, who really feel that they’ll now stay a standard life with out getting instantly engaged within the warfare,” he mentioned, referring to wage will increase for manufacturing unit staff and varied social payouts.
Nonetheless, he pointed to what he mentioned was rising polarization between supporters and opponents of Mr. Putin.
“Mutual misunderstanding at this time is greater and extra acute than earlier than,” Mr. Volkov mentioned.
Many Russian anti-Kremlin activists — those that stay within the nation and people who left — worry a brand new crackdown on dissent.
Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a Russian businessman and opposition activist in London, mentioned he believed that after the election, dissidents would face a stark alternative between fleeing or dealing with imprisonment.
“Nothing will assist; the selection shall be both to go to jail or go away the nation,” he mentioned in an interview with Zhivoy Gvozd, an unbiased Russian information outlet.
However some analysts have expressed doubt that Mr. Putin will do rather more than he already has to stamp out dissent.
“The system can’t be within the state of mobilization and stress endlessly,” said Aleksandr Kynev, a Russia-based political scientist who makes a speciality of regional politics. “Should you give an excessive amount of energy to the safety companies, tomorrow they’ll take away you from energy,” he mentioned. “Vladimir Putin understands it effectively.”
Alina Lobzina contributed reporting.