After which there have been two.
With Democrat Tom Suozzi’s victory in a special House election in New York on Tuesday, the shrinking Republican majority within the Home was on monitor to dwindle even additional, leaving the G.O.P. in a position to afford solely two defections from the get together line on votes when all members are current.
That may give them nearly no cushion to cope with the inevitable absences brought on by sickness, journey delays, weddings, funerals and unexpected occasions that might hold Republicans away from the Home flooring for votes. It comes as Congress is dealing with a crush of points, together with early-March deadlines for funding the federal government and a pending emergency nationwide safety spending invoice to ship assist to Ukraine, Israel and different American allies.
It additionally provides every particular person Home Republican much more leverage over Speaker Mike Johnson, who’s already struggling to steer his unmanageable majority.
“I’d be continuously on protection, I’d be attempting to keep away from defeats, and I’d be very, very cautious,” former Speaker Newt Gingrich mentioned in an interview.
The hazards of the slim margin had been already obvious on Tuesday night time, even earlier than Mr. Suozzi gained the Lengthy Island seat previously occupied by George Santos, the Republican lawmaker who was expelled from the Home in December.
Of their second try to impeach Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland safety secretary, Republicans succeeded by only one vote after three of their members broke with the get together to oppose it. If both of the 2 Democrats who had been absent had proven up, the impeachment that Republicans had been promising their voters for greater than a yr would have failed once more. (The 2 Democratic absentees had been Consultant Judy Chu of California, who mentioned she was isolating after testing constructive for the coronavirus, and Consultant Lois Frankel of Florida, who was grounded by a delayed flight.)
“That impeachment decision couldn’t cross,” beneath the brand new steadiness of energy, mentioned Aaron Fritschner, a longtime adviser to Consultant Don Beyer, Democrat of Virginia, who mentioned Mr. Suozzi’s seat flip “imperils each Republicans’ potential to carry the Home in November and their potential to manipulate till then.”
“Beneath Republican management, the Home has seen historic quantities of chaos and paralysis, and it’s about to get a bit of bit crazier,” Mr. Fritschner added.
When Mr. Suozzi is sworn in on Feb. 28, after the Home’s upcoming recess, Republicans will maintain 219 seats to Democrats’ 213. That places the G.O.P. down three seats from once they gained a slender majority in November 2022, after a combination of coincidence, scandal, health issues and political turmoil that has whittled away at their numbers.
On Wednesday, as they ready for his or her majority to shrink but once more, some Republicans had been ruing the choice by their colleagues to expel Mr. Santos, who served as a dependable Republican vote in Congress regardless of being a serial fabulist, a determine of nationwide ridicule and the topic of a 23-count federal indictment.
Consultant Byron Donalds, Republican of Florida, instructed CNN that Mr. Santos had but to be discovered responsible of any crimes when he was expelled and, “to pre-empt that, to attain political factors, was silly.”
The minuscule majority will probably be Speaker Mike Johnson’s actuality for the approaching yr. In April, Democrats are prone to fill a secure seat that was occupied by Consultant Brian Higgins, Democrat of New York, who left Congress earlier this month to turn into president of the Shea Performing Arts Heart. That seat gained’t change the margin of management, however will permit even much less room for Republican absences.
There will probably be some modest aid for Republicans within the late spring and early summer time, when they’re prone to fill two secure seats that had been vacated by Consultant Invoice Johnson, Republican of Ohio, who left Congress to turn into the president of Youngstown State College; and former Consultant Kevin McCarthy, who resigned from his California seat on the finish of final yr after being ousted from the speakership.
However with a Republican convention that’s extra typically divided in opposition to itself than appearing as a united entrance, it should stay tough for Mr. Johnson to cross any payments that rely strictly on votes from his personal get together.
Mr. Gingrich mentioned the one means ahead for Mr. Johnson was to vastly decrease expectations of what Home Republicans might be anticipated to perform.
“Johnson has to promote the nation that having Home Republicans who use the investigative device, and who block dangerous concepts, is all you may get till the election,” he mentioned. “After which we’ll see if we’ve a greater future. He shouldn’t exhaust himself attempting to do issues he can’t do.”
Vin Weber, a former Republican congressman from Minnesota, mentioned the G.O.P. had made a foul state of affairs worse due to its deep inner divisions.
“At the start of this Congress, you can have imagined the tightness of the margins would make Republicans band collectively,” Mr. Weber mentioned. As an alternative, he mentioned, the slim majority had emboldened the exhausting proper to stage inner rebellions to press its personal agenda, slightly than falling in line to assist the get together put up a united entrance in opposition to President Biden and Democrats.
Mr. Johnson, like Mr. McCarthy earlier than him, has responded by discovering methods to steer round right-wing rebels and work with Democrats to cross important measures. Mr. Johnson has finished so just lately by counting on a procedural movement that enables him to briefly droop Home guidelines and pace laws via however requires a two-thirds majority for passage.
Mr. Johnson has acknowledged the constricting actuality of wielding such a fragile majority.
“We cope with the numbers we’ve,” he mentioned on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
However as his first, failed attempt to impeach Mr. Mayorkas showed in a humiliating fashion, with inevitable absences, he won’t all the time know what numbers he has to cope with.
Home Republican leaders have stepped up their efforts to maintain tabs on their members’ whereabouts, however that may typically be like herding cats. Lawmakers typically journey with out letting leaders know of their plans, regardless of a requirement to offer discover when doable. Typically a pacesetter learns of a lawmaker’s location solely when she or he posts a video or {a photograph} on social media.
“Diseases, funerals, weddings — all of these issues should be taken into consideration in a means that they weren’t earlier than,” Mr. Weber mentioned. “Members aren’t used to having to be accountable for his or her whereabouts always. The Home of Representatives could be very a lot a gaggle of particular person entrepreneurs. They don’t wish to have to inform anyone the place they’re going to be and once they’re going to be there.”
On massive votes, members mentioned, it’s now understood that everybody will probably be current until they’ve given discover that they can’t be there. On Tuesday, as an example, Consultant Brian Mast, Republican of Florida, notified leaders that his flight was delayed and that he wouldn’t make the vote.
For Republicans, it was uncomfortably shut.
“Fortunately, regardless of mechanical failures on my flight, we nonetheless had sufficient votes to question him tonight,” Mr. Mast posted on social media after the vote in opposition to Mr. Mayorkas.
Luke Broadwater contributed reporting.